Annual Earnings Trajectory

Primary chart shows annual earnings over time; lifetime totals derive from the annual path.

Ages —

You (annual) Peer baseline (typical full‑time) Uncertainty band (you)

What you’re seeing

The chart shows projected annual earnings compared to a typical peer with the same career field and education level. The shaded region represents a 15th–85th percentile uncertainty range (lognormal variance model; wage anchors from BLS OEWS May 2024; age–earnings curve shape from BLS CPS lifecycle data).

How the peer baseline works

The peer baseline uses BLS median wages for your career field with the same career curve. No GPA, school tier, or hours boost is applied — it represents the typical median worker in your field.

Benchmarks

Generate a forecast to see anchors, curve shape, milestones, and peer assumptions.

This panel explains the concrete values used to form the peer baseline and your wage anchor.

Milestones

Career start, peak earnings, and retirement markers appear after generation for both trajectories.

Hover the chart for annual earnings and differences at any age.

Data Sources & Auto-Update

Wage anchors are based on BLS OEWS data and automatically refreshed every 24 hours via the BLS Public Data API. Current baseline: May 2024 OEWS. See BLS API documentation for details.

BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS)

Wage anchors by occupation group - an approximation for career field using representative medians and broad SOC group mappings.

OEWS overview (BLS)

BLS Current Population Survey (CPS)

Age–earnings patterns used to shape a realistic lifecycle curve. The model uses a smoothed, bounded curve derived from typical lifecycle earnings profiles.

High-Compensation Fields (Above BLS Cap)

BLS OEWS wage data is top-coded at approximately $239,200 annually. For fields that typically exceed this cap - physician specialties, Big Law, investment banking, private equity, hedge funds, and management consulting - the calculator uses projected anchor values derived from BLS mean wages, not exact BLS median figures.

You may override any default anchor by entering your actual current income in the calibration field. See methodology page for full documentation.

How the model works

This forecast estimates lifetime earnings by combining (1) estimated past earnings from career start to present and (2) projected annual earnings from current age through retirement. All figures are inflation-adjusted to today's dollars.

Accuracy Note: This is a directional forecast, not a precise prediction. Actual lifetime earnings may vary based on economic conditions, career decisions, and personal circumstances. Typical individual accuracy range: ±30–50%. Best used for comparing career scenarios relative to each other - not as financial or investment advice. Website built with AI tools; BLS figures verified against official data.

It is a coherent, bounded model, not a guarantee.

Wage anchor: A starting annual wage estimated from career field and education level (BLS OEWS May 2024 occupational medians via live API; top-coded physician specialties use estimates derived from BLS mean data).
Calibration (optional): Entering current annual income scales the projection proportionally so your current-year earnings match the provided value. Leave at $0 for the model's default estimate.
Age-based growth curve: Earnings rise faster early-career, approach a peak, then stabilize (curve shape derived from BLS CPS age–earnings lifecycle profiles).
Role, hours, experience: These make modest adjustments to growth and level. Caps prevent unrealistic domination by any single input.
Students: College/Graduate inputs use GPA and school tier to adjust earnings. An early-career placement boost (up to ~38% for 4.0 GPA at a target school) fades over ~10 years; a smaller persistent school premium (5–12%) lasts throughout the career. Non-student users are unaffected by GPA/tier.

Uncertainty, percentiles, and peer baseline

The shaded band shows a 15th–85th percentile uncertainty range around annual earnings - wider early-career and narrowing with age. Percentiles are estimated using a lognormal distribution calibrated to reflect realistic career earnings variance.

Peer baseline: Uses BLS median wages for your career field with the same career curve. The peer receives no GPA boost, no school tier boost, and assumes 40 hours/week. Your line rises above the peer through your personal advantages (education level, GPA, school tier, hours worked, and income calibration).
Peer percentile: Computed from total lifetime earnings (including estimated past earnings based on experience) compared to a calibrated peer distribution with realistic variance.
Important: Mapping “career field” to OEWS occupation groups is an approximation, not a precise occupational code selection.

Lifestyle tiers (stated rule)

Lifestyle is derived from a simple, stated rule:

Pre-retirement sustainable spend: ~70% of annual earnings (standard financial planning heuristic for after-savings, after-tax spending as a proportion of gross income).
Savings accumulation: A fixed savings rate applied to earnings builds a notional retirement portfolio.
Retirement spend: A 4% withdrawal rate applied to that portfolio (Trinity Study / Bengen 1994 safe withdrawal rate research - a simplified heuristic, not advice).

The label (Basic / Comfortable / Affluent) is assigned from the modeled sustainable annual spend levels.

Lifetime earnings total

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Total career earnings: estimated past earnings (based on experience) plus projected future earnings to retirement. (Wage anchors from BLS OEWS via live API; sub-specialty adjustments based on common-sense industry knowledge. Growth curve from BLS CPS age–earnings profiles.)

Peer percentile (lifetime)

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Based on cumulative lifetime earnings vs. a calibrated distribution.

Lifestyle snapshot (career-average)

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Derived from a stated sustainable-spend rule and savings assumptions.

Comparison callout

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Projected lifetime difference relative to peers is computed from the annual trajectories.